The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) is the most impactful economic release in the world for financial markets. On the first Friday of each month, traders everywhere hold their breath. In seconds, gold can move tens of dollars, the dollar can soar or collapse, and accounts can be emptied.
What is the NFP?
The Non-Farm Payrolls is a monthly report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures jobs created or lost in the US economy, excluding agriculture, government and a few other sectors.
- Health indicator #1: more jobs = strong economy = the Fed can raise rates.
- Direct impact on the dollar: a strong NFP strengthens the USD, a weak one weakens it.
- Impact on gold: gold moves inversely to the dollar — strong NFP = gold down.
What happens in the markets during the NFP
The NFP comes out at 8:30 ET. Concretely: gold moves sharply in minutes, spreads explode, slippage is unpredictable, and false moves are frequent (price rises then reverses violently). Most catastrophic trading losses happen during macro announcements.
Three classic NFP strategies
1. The straddle (before the release)
Place a buy and a sell order on each side of the current price, minutes before. The violent move triggers one. Risk: both can be hit by the initial whipsaw — a double loss.
2. Fade the move
Wait for the initial move (30–60 seconds), then trade the opposite direction, anticipating a retracement. Risk: sometimes the initial move is the real one and doesn't retrace.
3. Wait and trade the trend (after 15 min)
Wait 15–30 minutes for the chaos to settle, identify the real trend and enter with it. Spreads normalize, direction is clearer — but the main move is often already done.
Why Adestto AI bots do NOT trade during the NFP
Adestto AI's bots automatically stop trading around high-impact announcements, including the NFP. Why? Spreads explode, slippage makes risk incalculable, false moves trigger stops needlessly, and the risk/reward ratio degrades sharply.
The best losses are the ones you don't take. A bot that systematically pauses avoids high-risk entries in a context where risk is simply incalculable. It's often by NOT trading that a bot best protects your capital. This logic of stepping back by context is at the heart of adaptive bots.
Other announcements to watch
- FOMC: Fed rate decisions, 8 times a year. Impact comparable to the NFP.
- CPI: monthly inflation data, increasingly impactful.
- GDP, PMI: growth and activity indicators.
For method and risk, start with the learning resources and the 1% rule.
Educational content. Technologies Adestto inc. (Adestto AI) is a software and educational-content publisher — not a broker or an investment adviser, and is not registered with the AMF. Past performance does not predict future results; trading involves a risk of capital loss.